A major new study commissioned by NAV CANADA, Canada's civil air navigation service provider, projects a dramatic twenty-fold increase in drone and advanced air mobility (AAM) operations over the next two decades — with the sector potentially contributing up to $120 billion annually to the economy by 2045.
What the Forecast Tells Us
The scale of growth predicted in the NAV CANADA-commissioned report is striking. A twenty-fold increase in UAV and AAM operations would represent a fundamental transformation of low-altitude airspace — not just an incremental expansion of today's commercial drone sector, but an entirely new layer of aerial activity woven into daily life and industry.
Advanced air mobility refers broadly to a new generation of aircraft including autonomous cargo drones, electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOLs), and urban air taxis designed to operate in and around populated areas. When combined with the continued scaling of commercial UAS operations across sectors like delivery, infrastructure inspection, agriculture, and public safety, the cumulative traffic volume projections become substantial.
Why NAV CANADA Is Paying Attention
As Canada's designated air navigation service provider, NAV CANADA manages the airspace infrastructure that would need to accommodate this projected surge in unmanned and autonomous traffic. Commissioning forward-looking studies like this one signals that the organization is actively preparing for a future where drones and AAM vehicles are routine participants in the national airspace system — not edge cases to be managed reactively.
Integrating high volumes of UAV and eVTOL traffic alongside traditional manned aviation requires significant investment in unmanned traffic management (UTM) systems, updated regulatory frameworks, and new communication and surveillance infrastructure. Studies like this one help justify that investment and shape long-term planning.
The Economic Case for Drone Integration
The $120 billion annual economic contribution figure — if realized — would make the drone and AAM sector one of the most significant additions to the Canadian economy in modern history. That number likely encompasses:
- Direct revenue from drone-based commercial services
- Efficiency gains in logistics, agriculture, and infrastructure management
- Job creation across manufacturing, operations, and support services
- Urban air mobility networks reducing congestion and transportation costs
- Export potential for Canadian UAV technology and expertise
What This Means for the Drone Industry
Forecasts of this magnitude from a credible institutional source like NAV CANADA carry real weight. They send a signal to investors, policymakers, and operators that the long-term trajectory of the drone industry remains firmly upward — and that airspace authorities are beginning to treat UAV integration as a core infrastructure challenge rather than a peripheral regulatory issue.
For commercial drone operators, this is an encouraging indicator that the regulatory and infrastructure investment needed to unlock beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) operations, urban drone delivery, and AAM corridors is being taken seriously at the national level.
The coming years will be critical. How quickly Canada — and airspace authorities globally — can build out the UTM frameworks, Remote ID infrastructure, and low-altitude traffic management systems to support this growth will determine whether these projections become reality or remain aspirational benchmarks.